The role of multiple wildlife hosts in the persistence and spread of bovine tuberculosis in New Zealand.

Aim: To explore how the inclusion of multi-host dynamics affects the predicted prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in possums and other host species following the current best practice for control of TB in large difficult and remote areas, to identify which host species are responsible for changes in predicted prevalence, and whether TB can persist in possum-free host communities.

Methods: Multi-host TB models were constructed, comprising three host species with density-dependent population growth, density-dependent disease transmission and susceptible and infected classes. Models were parameterised for two case studies of current concern in New Zealand, namely chronic TB persistence in a possum-deer-pig complex in extensive forest, and in a possum-pig-ferret complex in unforested semi-arid shrub and grasslands. Persistence of TB in the face of best practice possum control was evaluated from model simulations, and the contribution of different hosts to persistence of TB was assessed by removing each host species in turn from the simulations. A sensitivity test explored how different parameter values affected modelled persistence of TB.

Results: The forest multi-host model-predicted amplification of TB prevalence due to the presence of pigs. The presence of pigs and/or deer did not jeopardise the success of best practice possum control in eradicating TB from the system, as pigs and deer are effectively end-hosts for TB. Sensitivity analyses indicated these interpretations were robust to uncertainty in model parameter values. The grassland system model predicted that the multi-host species complex could potentially lead to failure of eradication of TB under possum-only control, due to TB persisting in ferret and pig populations in the absence of possum hosts through reciprocal scavenging, resulting in spillback transmission to possums once their populations had started to recover from control.

Conclusions: With respect to management of TB, for modelled forest habitats, 15 years of effective possum control was predicted to eradicate TB from the possum-deer-pig host community, indicating the current focus on possum-only control is appropriate for such areas. For grassland model systems, TB was predicted to persist in the ferret-pig host complex in the absence of possums, potentially jeopardising the effectiveness of possum-only control programmes. However this outcome depended on the occurrence and rate of pigs acquiring TB from ferrets, which is unknown. Thus some estimation of this transmission parameter is required to enable managers to assess if multi-host disease dynamics are important for their TB control programmes.