Probabilistic physical characteristics of phase transitions at highway bottlenecks: incommensurability of three-phase and two-phase traffic-flow theories.

Physical features of induced phase transitions in a metastable free flow at an on-ramp bottleneck in three-phase and two-phase cellular automaton (CA) traffic-flow models have been revealed. It turns out that at given flow rates at the bottleneck, to induce a moving jam (F → J transition) in the metastable free flow through the application of a time-limited on-ramp inflow impulse, in both two-phase and three-phase CA models the same critical amplitude of the impulse is required. If a smaller impulse than this critical one is applied, neither F → J transition nor other phase transitions can occur in the two-phase CA model. We have found that in contrast with the two-phase CA model, in the three-phase CA model, if the same smaller impulse is applied, then a phase transition from free flow to synchronized flow (F → S transition) can be induced at the bottleneck. This explains why rather than the F → J transition, in the three-phase theory traffic breakdown at a highway bottleneck is governed by an F → S transition, as observed in real measured traffic data. None of two-phase traffic-flow theories incorporates an F → S transition in a metastable free flow at the bottleneck that is the main feature of the three-phase theory. On the one hand, this shows the incommensurability of three-phase and two-phase traffic-flow theories. On the other hand, this clarifies why none of the two-phase traffic-flow theories can explain the set of fundamental empirical features of traffic breakdown at highway bottlenecks.