AI Article Synopsis
- The United Nations released new population projections, indicating that world population will likely continue growing this century, contrary to previous predictions.
- There is an 80% probability the global population will rise to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion by 2100, with a notable increase expected in Africa due to higher fertility rates.
- The ratio of working-age individuals to older individuals is projected to decline in all countries, signaling potential challenges for economies and social systems.
Article Abstract
The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.
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|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4230924 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1257469 | DOI Listing |
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