Impaired Carbon Monoxide Diffusing Capacity is the strongest lung function predictor of decline in 12 minute-walking distance in COPD; a 5-year follow-up study.

Background: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the longitudinal relationship between functional exercise capacity, assessed through standardized 12-minute walk test (12MWT), and various lung function parameters obtained using spirometry, body plethysmography and diffusing capacity (DLco) measurements in patients with COPD.

Methods: Spirometry, body plethysmography and DLco-measurements were performed at baseline in 84 subjects with moderate to very severe COPD and at follow-up visit (n = 34) after 5 years. Functional exercise capacity was determined using standardized 12MWT.

Results: Patients were characterized at baseline by FEV1 of 1.2 ± 0.4 L (41 ± 13% predicted), RV of 3.4 ± 1.0 L (187 ± 58% predicted) and DLco of 3.8 ± 1.2 mmol/min/kPa (51 ± 16% predicted). A decrease of 12MWD was found between baseline and follow-up (928 ± 193 m vs. 789 ± 273 m, p < 0.001). DLco and 12MWD at baseline were the only independent predictors of 12MWD at follow-up in a multiple logistic regression model that also included all other lung function parameters, gender, age and BMI. Decline in 12MWD was mainly explained by deterioration in DLco. Furthermore, DLco value at baseline had the highest explanatory value for the loss in 12MWD after 5 years (R2 = 0.18, p = 0.009).

Conclusions: In a 5-year longitudinal study, DLco-measurements at baseline were the most important predictors of declining exercise capacity in COPD patients. These results suggest that integration of DLco in the clinical workup provides a more comprehensive assessment in patients with COPD.