Mathematical analysis of dynamic spread of Pine Wilt disease.

Since its detection in Portugal in 1999, the pinewood nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Steiner and Buhrer), a causal agent of Pine Wilt Disease, represents a threat to European forestry. Significant amount of money has been spent on its monitoring and eradication. This paper presents mathematical analysis of spread of pine wilt disease using a set of partial differential equations with space (longitude and latitude) and time as parameters of estimated spread of disease. This methodology can be used to evaluate risk of various assumed entry points of disease and make defense plans in advance. In case of an already existing outbreak, it can be used to draw optimal line of defense and plan removal of trees. Optimization constraints are economic loss of removal of susceptible trees as well as budgetary constraints of workforce cost.