Weight maintenance from young adult weight predicts better health outcomes.

Objective: Defining groups of individuals within a larger population with similar patterns of weight change over time may provide insight into influences of weight stability or gain.

Methods: Latent class growth modeling was used to define subgroups of weight change in adult members of the Gila River Indian Community participating in at least four non-diabetic health exams including OGTTs (N = 1,157, 762F/395M; 78.4 ± 19.0 kg). In a separate study, 152 individuals had 24-h EE measured in a respiratory chamber.

Results: Eight groups with baseline weights of 54.6 ± 7.3 (n = 124), 64.2 ± 7.7 (n = 267), 73.6 ± 7.8 (n = 298), 86.1 ± 10.2 (n = 194), 95.5 ± 6.7 (n = 90), 97.9 ± 10.4 (n = 92), 110.9 ± 11.9 (n = 61), and 122.1 ± 13.6 (n = 31) kg (P < 0.001) were delineated. Group 5, (initial weight = 95.5 ± 6.7 kg) maintained a comparatively stable weight over time (+3.3 ± 10.3 kg, +3.8 ± 11.2% of initial weight; median follow-up time: 13.1 years). All other groups gained weight over time (+29.9 ± 21.1% of initial weight; median follow-up time: 16.3 years). Higher starting weight defined weight gain in most groups, but higher 2 h glucose predicted membership in the lower weight trajectories. The weight stable group had higher rates of impaired glucose regulation at baseline and higher 24-h EE.

Conclusions: Weight in young adulthood defined weight gain trajectory underscoring the importance of intervening early to prevent weight gain.