[Selection of advantage prediction model for forest fire occurrence in Tahe, Daxing'an Mountain].

This study chose zero-inflated model and Hurdle model that have been widely used in economic and social fields to model the fire occurrence in Tahe, Daxing'an Mountain. The AIC, LR and SSR were used to compare the models including zero-inflated Poisson model (ZIP), zero-inflated negative binomial model (ZINB), Poisson-Hurdle model (PH) and negative Binomial Hurdle (NBH) (two types, four models in total) so as to determine a better-fit model to predict the local fire occurrence. The results illustrated that ZINB model was superior over the other three models (ZIP, PH and NBH) based on the result of AIC and SSR tests. LR test revealed that the negative binomial distribution was suitable to both the "count" portion of zero-inflated model and hurdle model. Furthermore, this paper concluded that the zero-inflated model could better fit the fire feature of the study area according to the hypotheses of the two types of models.