Conditional survival of heart failure patients after coronary artery bypass grafting.

Aims: Conditional survival is defined as the probability of surviving an additional number of years beyond that already survived. The aim of this study was to estimate conditional survival in heart failure patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).

Methods: Heart failure patients with multivessel coronary artery disease undergoing first-time, isolated CABG between 1992 and 2011 were included in this study. Conditional survival estimates were computed for 1, 5, and 10 years after already surviving 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years.

Results: Compared with traditional survival estimates, conditional survival was consistently higher at all time periods. The overall 2-year adjusted survival estimate was 84% compared with the 1-year conditional survival rate of 95% for 1-year survivors. Similarly, the overall 10-year adjusted survival rate was 36% from the time of surgery compared with the 5-year conditional survival of 54% for patients who had survived 5 years.

Conclusion: Conditional survival provides a more accurate estimate of long-term survival in heart failure patients who have already survived for a certain amount of time after CABG. This information is useful for patients and physicians who manage their long-term care.