Predictors of advanced colorectal neoplasia for colorectal cancer screening.

Background: The Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score based on age, gender, family history, and smoking is useful to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) in asymptomatic Asian subjects.

Purpose: To evaluate the factors in addition to those of APCS associated with ACN colonoscopic findings.

Methods: Data from 5,220 asymptomatic subjects aged between 50 and 70 years who underwent screening colonoscopy in a community center between 2008 and 2012 were analyzed. One binary logistic regression analysis was conducted in 2013 with the presence of ACN or cancer as the outcome, controlling for APCS score, alcohol consumption, BMI, hypertension, and other chronic diseases as independent variables.

Results: The average participant age was 57.7 years (SD=4.9) and 47.5% were men. Advanced neoplasms or cancers were identified at colonoscopy in 5.6% of all screening participants. From multivariate regression analysis, APCS score≥4 (adjusted OR [AOR]=1.74, 95% CI=1.34, 2.25, p<0.001); overweight (BMI=23-24.9, AOR=1.52, 95% CI=1.12, 2.07, p=0.007); obesity (BMI≥25, AOR=1.56, 95% CI=1.15, 2.10, p=0.004); hypertension (AOR=1.58, 95% CI=1.21, 2.06, p=0.001); and alcohol consumption (AOR=1.47, 95% CI=1.05, 2.06, p=0.025) were associated with ACN. The c-statistic of APCS score alone was 0.560 (95% CI=0.524, 0.595, p=0.001) and that of APCS score plus BMI, hypertension, and alcohol consumption was 0.613 (95% CI=0.578, 0.648, p<0.001).

Conclusions: Alcohol consumption, hypertension, and BMI are independent predictors of ACN, which could be incorporated into the APCS for prioritizing Asian asymptomatic subjects for colorectal cancer screening.