Temporal trends in the discontinuation of first-line antiretroviral therapy.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to describe the rates and predictors of discontinuing first-line antiretroviral therapy in the different eras of treatment over a nearly 20 year period initiated in British Columbia between 1992 and 2010.

Methods: All naive adults who started antiretroviral therapy (first-line antiretroviral therapy) at any hospital or clinic in British Columbia (Canada) in 1992-2010 were included in this population-based retrospective cohort study. We were primarily interested in whether the era of treatment (1992-95, 1996-2000, 2001-05 and 2006-10) was associated with discontinuation (stopping or switching of initial treatment) within 3 years of starting therapy. Weibull survival analysis was used to model the era of treatment and its association with time to discontinuation.

Results: The study included 7901 patients. Overall, the probability of discontinuing at 12, 24 and 36 months of treatment was 52%, 68% and 76%, respectively. In the adjusted model, variables associated with discontinuing were earlier treatment era, younger age, low adherence and lower baseline CD4 count. Regarding the 2006-10 period, the probability of discontinuing at 12, 24 and 36 months was 36%, 47% and 53%, respectively. In the adjusted model, the variables associated with discontinuation were younger age, female gender, AIDS-defining illnesses at baseline, low adherence and a protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimen.

Conclusions: Discontinuation rates of first-line therapy have decreased over time, but are still quite high even for the latest drug combinations. In the most recent era, younger women on a PI regimen and those not achieving optimal adherence had the highest risk of discontinuing first-line antiretroviral therapy.