Incidence of diabetes mellitus in a population-based cohort of HIV-infected and non-HIV-infected persons: the impact of clinical and therapeutic factors over time.

Aims: To examine incidence density rate and correlates of incident diabetes mellitus in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals compared with matched non-HIV-infected persons.

Methods: Data were obtained from the South Carolina Medicaid system and the enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System surveillance database for persons ≥ 18 years of age who had been attended to during the period 1994 to 2011. Time-dependent proportional hazards analysis and marginal structural models were used to analyse the data.

Results: A total of 13 632 individuals (6816, 1:1 matched HIV-infected and non-HIV-infected persons; median age 39 years; 57% male) contributed 88 359 person-years of follow-up. Incidence rate of diabetes was higher in the non-HIV-infected group compared with the HIV-infected group (13.60 vs. 11.35 per 1000 person-years). Multivariable hazards analysis suggested a significantly lower risk of incident diabetes among HIV-infected persons treated with combination antiretroviral therapy compared with the matched non-HIV-infected persons (adjusted hazards ratio 0.55; 95% CI 0.46-0.65). Among HIV-infected persons, marginal structural modelling suggested a significantly higher risk of diabetes with cumulative exposure to protease inhibitors over the observation period (adjusted relative risk 1.35; 95% CI 1.03-1.78), but this association was not significant for exposure to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. Overall, female gender, older age, non-white race/ethnicity, and pre-existing hypertension, dyslipidaemia, obesity and hepatitis C infection were associated with higher risk of diabetes incidence.

Conclusions: HIV infection may not be independently associated with increased risk of diabetes. Among HIV-infected persons, exposure to protease inhibitor-based regimens may increase the risk of diabetes. Healthcare providers should make every effort to use combination antiretroviral therapy regimens with a better cardiometabolic profile.