Assessing combined sewer overflows with long lead time for better surface water management.

During high-intensity rainfall events, the capacity of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) can exceed resulting in discharge of untreated stormwater and wastewater directly into receiving rivers. These discharges can result in high concentrations of microbial pathogens, biochemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, and other pollutants in the receiving waters. The frequency and severity of the CSO discharge are strongly influenced by climatic factors governing the occurrence of urban stormwater runoff, particularly the amount and intensity of the rainfall. This study attempts to assess the impact of climate change (change in rainfall amount and frequency) on CSO under the high (A1FI) and low (B1) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the greenhouse concentration derived from three global circulation models in the north west of England at the end of the twenty-first century.