Survival probability and predictors of mortality and retention in care among patients enrolled for first-line antiretroviral therapy, Andhra Pradesh, India, 2008-2011.

Background: The national antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiative in India began in 2004. In order to better inform the national program, we estimated the mean cumulative survival probability and loss to follow-up (LFU) rate among patients initiated on ART.

Methods: We identified a cohort of people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged ≥15 years initiated on ART in two ART centres in Hyderabad city, Andhra Pradesh state, India between January 2008 and December 2008. The cohort was followed-up until 31 December 2011 and death and/or LFU were the primary endpoints. Death from any cause during the study period was considered to be the result of HIV infection. We used the Kaplan-Meier estimation method for survival probability and Cox proportional hazard model to identify the predictors.

Results: Of the 1690 patients initiated on ART, 259 (15.3%) were transferred out during the study period. Mortality rate was 7.6/100 person-years. Male gender, low CD4 count, history of tuberculosis before initiation of ART, and weight <48 kg were the predictors of mortality. Patients who were LFU were more likely to be males, unemployed, widowed, and had weight below 48 kg.

Conclusion: Survival rates on ART were higher compared to other resource-limited settings. Delayed diagnosis and initiation of ART and co-infection with TB were important predictors for both mortality and retention in care.