AI Article Synopsis
- - The study aimed to evaluate how well the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) predicts one-year mortality in patients with systolic heart failure in Pakistan, conducted at a heart institute from March 2011 to March 2012.
- - A cohort of 118 patients was analyzed, with metrics such as age, gender, ejection fraction, and brain natriuretic peptide levels recorded, leading to a notable sensitivity of 89.3% and specificity of 71.1%.
- - The results indicated that SHFM is a reliable tool for predicting one-year mortality in this specific population, achieving an accuracy of 75.4% in the study with significant statistical findings.
Article Abstract
Objective: To determine the effectiveness of Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in a Pakistani systolic heart failure cohort in predicting mortality in this population.
Study Design: Cohort study.
Place And Duration Of Study: The Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi, from March 2011 to March 2012.
Methodology: One hundred and eighteen patients with heart failure (HF) from the registry were followed for one year. Their 1-year mortality was calculated using the SHFM software on their enrollment into the registry. After 1-year predicted 1-year mortality was compared with the actual 1-year mortality of these patients.
Results: The mean age was 41.6 ± 14.9 years (16 - 78 years). There were 73.7% males and 26.3% females. One hundred and fifteen patients were in NYHA class III or IV. Mean ejection fraction in these patients was 23 ± 9.3%. Mean brain natriuretic peptide levels were 1230 ± 1214 pg/mL. Sensitivity of the model was 89.3% with 71.1% specificity, 49% positive predictive value and 95.5% negative predictive value. The accuracy of the model was 75.4%. In ROC analysis, AUC for the SHFM was 0.802 (p < 0.001).
Conclusion: SHFM was found to be reliable in predicting one-year mortality among patients with heart failure in the Pakistani patients.
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