Dissecting genetic and non-genetic sources of long-term yield trend in German official variety trials.

Long-term yield trends have genetic and non-genetic components which may be dissected by a linear mixed model with regression terms. Disease-resistance breakdown must be accounted for in the interpretation. Long-term yield trends of crop varieties may be studied to identify a genetic trend component due to breeding efforts and a non-genetic trend component due to advances in agronomic practices. Many such studies have been undertaken, and most of these inspect trends either by plotting means against years and/or by some kind of regression analysis based on such plots. Dissection of genetic and non-genetic trend components is a key challenge in such analyses. In the present paper, we consider mixed models with regression components for identifying different sources of trend. We pay particular attention to the effect of disease breakdown, which is shown to be confounded with long-term genetic and non-genetic trends, causing an over-estimation of genetic trends based on long-term yield trial data. The models are illustrated using German multi-environment trial data on yield, mildew and Septoria leaf blotch susceptibility for winter wheat and yield, mildew and net blotch susceptibility for spring barley.