Factors associated with early recurrence and death after esophagectomy for cancer.

Background: Accurate selection of patients for radical treatment of esophageal cancer is essential to avoid early recurrence and death (ERD) after surgery. We sought to evaluate a large series of consecutive resections to assess factors that may be associated with this poor outcome.

Methods: This was a cohort study including 680 patients operated for esophageal cancer between 2000 and 2010. The poor outcome group comprised 100 patients with tumor recurrence and death within 1 year of surgery. The comparison group comprised 267 long-term survivors, defined as those surviving more than 3 years from surgery. Pathological characteristics associated with poor outcome were analyzed using logistic regression to determine odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results: On the adjusted model T stage and N stage predicted poor survival, with the greatest risk being patients with locally advanced tumors and three or more involved lymph nodes (OR 10.6, 95% CI 2.8-40.0). Poor differentiation (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4-5.5), chemotherapy response (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.2-10.6), and involved resection margins (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.2-6.0) were all significant independent prognostic markers in the multivariable model. There was a trend toward worse survival with lymphovascular invasion (OR 2.0, 95% CI 0.9-4.2) and low albumin (OR 1.9, 95% CI 0.8-4.4) but not of statistical significance in the adjusted model.

Conclusions: Esophageal cancer patients with poorly differentiated tumors and three or more involved lymph nodes have a particularly high risk of ERD after surgery. Accurate risk stratification of patients may identify a group who would be better served by alternative oncological treatment strategies.