A new model for the dynamics of cholera is formulated that incorporates both the infection age of infectious individuals and biological age of pathogen in the environment. The basic reproduction number is defined and proved to be a sharp threshold determining whether or not cholera dies out. Final size relations for cholera outbreaks are derived for simplified models when input and death are neglected.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1335 | DOI Listing |
Math Biosci Eng
July 2024
Gheorghe Mihoc-Caius Iacob Institute of Mathematical Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, Romania.
After the many failures in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying robust principles of epidemic control will be key in future preparedness. In this work, we propose an optimal control model of an age-of-infection transmission model under a two-phase control regime where social distancing is the only available control tool in the first phase, while the second phase also benefits from the arrival of vaccines. We analyzed the problem by an ad-hoc numerical algorithm under a strong hypothesis implying a high degree of prioritization to the protection of health from the epidemic attack, which we termed the "low attack rate" hypothesis.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFVaccine
August 2024
Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA. Electronic address:
J Math Biol
April 2024
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 210029, Jiangsu, China.
Diagnostic delay for TB infected individuals and the lack of TB vaccines for adults are the main challenges to achieve the goals of WHO by 2050. In order to evaluate the impacts of diagnostic delay and vaccination for adults on prevalence of TB, we propose an age-structured model with latent age and infection age, and we incorporate Mycobacterium TB in the environment and vaccination into the model. Diagnostic delay is indicated by the age of infection before receiving treatment.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMath Biosci Eng
May 2023
Member of the Italian INdAM Research group GNCS.
In this paper we consider a non-standard discretization to a Volterra integro-differential system which includes a number of age-of-infection models in the literature. The aim is to provide a general framework to analyze the proposed scheme for the numerical solution of a class of problems whose continuous dynamic is well known in the literature and allow a deeper analysis in cases where the theory lacks.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEpidemics
March 2023
School of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA; School of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA; Institut de Biologie, École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France. Electronic address:
Asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections can have different characteristic time scales of transmission. These time-scale differences can shape outbreak dynamics as well as bias population-level estimates of epidemic strength, speed, and controllability. For example, prior work focusing on the initial exponential growth phase of an outbreak found that larger time scales for asymptomatic vs.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEnter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!