Objective: To analyze the fertility rate and to estimate the future population size of Shaanxi province, based on data from the sixth national population census.
Methods: Fertility rate curve was used to analyze the fertility model and the abbreviated life table. The actual fertility rate was used as the main way to predict the future population size. General fertility rate was analyzed by factor analysis approach.
Results: The total fertility rate of Shaanxi province was 1.05 in 2010 while age-specific fertility rate contributed 101.27% to the general fertility rate. The expected population sizes would be 38 122 474 in 2015, 38 432 931 in 2020 and 38 121 904 in 2025 respectively.
Conclusion: Birthrate would become lower and the population size appearing a negative increase in the year 2020, in Shaanxi province.
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