Primary esophageal cancer: heterogeneity as potential prognostic biomarker in patients treated with definitive chemotherapy and radiation therapy.

Purpose: To determine the association between tumor heterogeneity, morphologic tumor response, and overall survival in primary esophageal cancer treated with chemotherapy and radiation therapy (CRT).

Materials And Methods: After an institutional review board waiver was obtained, contrast material-enhanced computed tomographic (CT) studies in 36 patients with stage T2 or greater esophageal tumors who underwent contrast-enhanced CT before and after CRT between 2005 and 2008 were analyzed in terms of whole-tumor texture, with quantification of entropy, uniformity, mean gray-level intensity, kurtosis, standard deviation of the histogram, and skewness for fine to coarse textures (filters 1.0-2.5, respectively). The association between texture parameters and survival time was assessed by using Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox proportional hazards model. Survival models involving texture parameters and combinations of texture and morphologic response assessment were compared with morphologic assessment alone by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

Results: Posttreatment medium entropy of less than 7.356 (median overall survival, 33.2 vs 11.7 months; P = .0002), coarse entropy of less than 7.116 (median overall survival, 33.2 vs 11.7 months; P = .0002), and medium uniformity of 0.007 or greater (median overall survival, 33.2 vs 11.7 months; P = .0002) were associated with improved survival time. These remained significant prognostic factors after adjustment for stage and age: entropy (filter 2.0: hazard ratio [HR] = 5.038, P = .0004; filter 2.5: HR = 5.038, P = .0004) and uniformity (HR = 0.199, P = .0004). Survival models that included a combination of pretreatment entropy and uniformity with maximal wall thickness assessment, respectively, performed better than morphologic assessment alone (area under the ROC curve, 0.767 vs 0.487 [P = .00005] and 0.802 vs 0.487 [P = .0003]).

Conclusion: Posttreatment texture parameters are associated with survival time, and the combination of pretreatment texture parameters and maximal wall thickness performed better in survival models than morphologic tumor response alone.