[Parameter sensitivity analysis of runoff simulation and model adaptability research based on HSPF].

Based on the sensitivity analysis of key parameters, we calibrated and validated HSPF model in a typical small watershed of hilly region in Tai Lake, and then evaluated the adaptability of the model in the hilly region of Tai Lake. In this study, 5 sensitivity parameters AGWRC, UZSN, INFILT, LZSN, and DEEPFR were determined by using the relative sensitivity method which is based on perturbation analysis, and then the annual runoff from 2005 to 2010 was simulated. The results showed good agreement with percent differences of - 6.39%, - 8.76% and 9.66%, respectively, which were all below 10% during the calibration period, and the simulation results were in a good range with percent differences of -13.31% and 5.22% during the validation period. The Nash-Sutcliffe (Ens) coefficients reached 0.87 and 0.69, respectively, and relative errors were 1.63% and 4.14%, which met the simulation requirements and could reflect the variation of annual runoff in Zhongtian River Basin. The results show that the HSPF model in the study area has better adaptability to watershed runoff simulation which has scientific significance to the simulated hydrological processes in the region and also provides reference for application and promotion of HSPF model in different regions in our country.