Prognostic factors in hemodialysis patients: experience of a Havana hospital.

Introduction: Knowledge of prognostic factors in end-stage renal disease patients has improved dialysis management and methods for reducing morbidity and mortality, underlining the importance of identification, prevention and control of these factors.

Objective: Identify factors affecting prognosis (survival or death) in hemodialysis patients at the Medical-Surgical Research Center in Havana over a ten-year period.

Methods: Descriptive, prospective study of 81 end-stage renal disease patients who received hemodialysis at the Medical-Surgical Research Center from 1995 to 2004. Prognostic factors were identified at initiation of and during dialysis treatment, using chi square, t test, McNemar test, Kaplan Meier analysis, log-rank test and Cox regression model, with significance threshold set at p <0.05.

Results: Hypertension and diabetes were the leading causes of end-stage renal disease. Six patients were referred late. Mean survival was 4.4 years; with survival of 86.6%, 54.7% and 26.6% at one, three and five years respectively. Factors predictive of decreased survival that were most frequent at initiation of hemodialysis were hypertension and chronic anemia (both present in 95.9% of cases); malnutrition, hypoalbuminemia, cardiovascular disease and chronic liver disease increased during treatment while hypertension decreased. In multivariate analysis, prognostic factors that significantly predicted decreased survival were hypertension, inadequate vascular access and diabetes. Patients aged ≥ 60 years and those with malnutrition, hypoalbuminemia, anemia, cardiovascular disease or liver disease had lower survival figures at the end of the study period. Leading causes of death were infections (45.2%) and cardiovascular disease (41.9%); the latter was present in 93.5% of deaths, independent of underlying cause of death.

Conclusions: Survival of hemodialysis patients diminished at five years. Some negative predictive factors are present at initiation of hemodialysis, such as diabetes, hypertension and chronic anemia; others increased later, including malnutrition, hypoalbuminemia, cardiovascular disease and liver disease.