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Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state.
Nature
December 2012
Palaeoecological Laboratory, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
There is a recognized need to anticipate tipping points, or critical transitions, in social-ecological systems. Studies of mathematical and experimental systems have shown that systems may 'wobble' before a critical transition. Such early warning signals may be due to the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which causes a system to recover slowly from small impacts, or to a flickering phenomenon, which causes a system to switch back and forth between alternative states in response to relatively large impacts.
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