Retrospective study of predictors of bone metastasis in prostate cancer cases.

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to identify clinical profiles of patients with low risk of having bone metastases, for which bone scanning could be safely eliminated.

Materials And Methods: This retrospective cross sectional study looked at prostate cancer patients seen in the Urology Departments in 2 tertiary centres over the 11 year period starting from January 2000 to May 2011. Patient demographic data, levels of PSA at diagnosis, Gleason score for the biopsy core, T-staging as well as the lymph node status were recorded and analysed.

Results: 258 men were included. The mean age of those 90 men (34.9%) with bone metastasis was 69.2 ± 7.3 years. Logistic regression found that PSA level (P=0.000) at diagnosis and patient's nodal-stage (P=0.02) were the only two independent variables able to predict the probability of bone metastasis among the newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients. Among those with a low PSA level less than 20 ng/ml, and less than 10 ng/ml, bone metastasis were detected in 10.3% (12 out of 117) and 9.7% (7 out of 72), respectively. However, by combining PSA level of 10 ng/ml or lower, and nodal negative as the two criteria to predict negative bone scan, a relatively high negative predictive value of 93.8% was obtained. The probability of bone metastasis in prostate cancer can be calculated with this formula: -1.069+0.007(PSA value, ng/ml) +1.021(Nodal status, 0 or 1)=x Probability of bone metastasis=2.718 x/1+2.718 x.

Conclusion: Newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients with a PSA level of 10 ng/ml or lower and negative nodes have a very low risk of bone metastasis (negative predictive value 93.8%) and therefore bone scans may not be necessary.