Microaneurysm formation rate as a predictive marker for progression to clinically significant macular edema in nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy.

Purpose: To evaluate the predictive value of microaneurysm (MA) formation rate concerning the development of clinically significant macular edema (CSME) in patients with mild-to-moderate nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy as evaluated by an automated analysis of central field fundus 30° photographs.

Methods: Two hundred and eighty-seven eyes were included in the study. Photographs obtained at Day 0, at 6, and 12 months were analyzed using the RetmarkerDR software (Critical Health SA) in a masked manner, and the MA formation rate was documented. A threshold of a calculated MA formation rate of 2 or more was chosen to consider a patient "positive." The ability to predict CSME development was then calculated for a period of up to 5 years. HbA1c values, blood pressure, or duration of diabetes were also evaluated.

Results: The study population consisted of 89 male and 59 female patients with a mean age of 57.6 years, a mean HbA1c of 7.8, and a mean duration of diabetes of 12.3 years. Forty-seven of 287 eyes (16.4%) developed CSME during follow-up. An increased MA formation rate of >2 MA was clearly associated with development of CSME. Using the automated analysis and a threshold of 2 or more new MA, the authors were able to identify 70.2% of the eyes that developed CSME during follow-up ("true positive") and using a threshold of up to 2 new MA, 71.7% of the patients that did not develop CSME ("true negative"). No significant differences concerning baseline and 1-year HbA1c levels within patient eyes that developed CSME compared with patient eyes below or over the calculated threshold of 2 MA (P = 0.554 and P = 0.890, respectively) were seen. The positive and negative predictive value was calculated to be 33% versus 92.5%, sensitivity was 70%, and specificity was 72%.

Conclusion: Using the RetmarkerDR software, the authors were able to identify patients with higher risk to develop CSME during follow-up using a threshold of 2 or more MA formation rate. Together with the high negative predictive value, the automated analysis may help to determine the individual risk of a patient to develop sight-threatening complications related to diabetic retinopathy and schedule individual screening intervals.