[Trend and prediction on the incidence of pancreatic cancer in China].

Objective: To analyze and predict the incidence trends and burden of pancreatic cancer from 2008 to 2015.

Methods: Registration data on pancreatic cancer of cancer registration in 1998 - 2007, were retrieved and utilized for analyzing the annual incidence of pancreatic cancer. Age-standardized rate by Chinese population (ASR) was calculated, using the direct method. JoinPoint software was applied for trend analysis. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Prediction Package was used to estimate age, period and cohort effects as well as to predict the incidence rates.

Results: From 1998 to 2007, the annual incidence for men and women in urban areas showed an increase of 1.86% and 2.1% per year, but the increasing trend on the age-standardized rate was not obvious in both men and women. However, the incidence rates for men and women in rural areas increased by 7.54% and 7.83% and the age-standardized rates increased by 4.82% and 5.48% per year.

Results: from the projection model showed that the trends were mainly caused by age, period and cohort effects. Based on the analysis, up to 2015, the annual new cases of pancreatic cancer would be 103 428 (60 500 for males and 42 928 for females), with 15 277 cases more than that of 2008.

Conclusion: There appeared an increasing trend of pancreatic cancer incidence which was more significant in the rural areas than the slowly increasing trend in the urban areas. The increasing trend of pancreatic cancer would be slow until the year 2015. However, in the short term pancreatic cancer is still a major cancer.