Statistical modelling and forecasting of cervix cancer cases in radiation oncology treatment: a hospital based study from Western Nepal.

Background: To estimate the numbers and trends in cervix cancer cases visiting the Radiotherapy Department at Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal, statistical modelling from retrospective data was applied.

Materials And Methods: A retrospective study was carried out on data for a total of 159 patients treated for cervix cancer at Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal, between 28th September 2000 and 31st December 2008. Theoretical statistics were used for statistical modelling and forecasting.

Results: Using curve fitting method, Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound, Power and Exponential growth models were validated. Including the constant term, none of the models fit the data well. Excluding the constant term, the cubic model demonstrated the best fit, with R2=0.871 (p=0.004). In 2008, the observed and estimated numbers of cases were same (12). According to our model, 273 patients with cervical cancer are expected to visit the hospital in 2015.

Conclusions: Our data predict a significant increase in cervical cancer cases in this region in the near future. This observation suggests the need for more focus and resource allocation on cervical cancer screening and treatment.