[Clinical study of prognostic value of interleukin-6 in severe acute pancreatitis].

Objective: To investigate the value of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) level as a prognostic indicator in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) patients.

Methods: Data of 62 cases of SAP admitted to Department of Critical Care Medicine from January 2006 to September 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. They were divided into two groups: non-survivor group (n=15) and survivor group (n=47). Serum levels of IL-6 at 24, 48, 72 hours after admission were compared between two groups. Correlation between IL-6 value and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score and CT severity index (CTSI) at 48 hours were analyzed. The receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted at 48 hours to analyze the accuracy of IL-6 value as a prognostic indicator in the initial stage of SAP.

Results: The IL-6 values were elevated obviously followed by a lowering in non-survivor group. However, it continued to decrease gradually in survivor group. The IL-6 values of non-survivor group were significantly higher than those of survivor group at 48 hours and 72 hours after admission (545.5 ± 265.7 ng/L vs. 147.2 ± 107.0 ng/L, 243.0 ± 133.6 ng/L vs. 119.0 ± 69.5 ng/L, both P<0.01). IL-6 ROC had an area under curve (AUC) of 0.930 at 48 hours. In both groups, IL-6 values and APACHEII score showed a positive correlation (r=0.930, P=0.003; r=0.964, P=0.000), and also between IL-6 values and CTSI (r=0.915, P=0.000; r=0.921, P=0.005) at 48 hours.

Conclusion: IL-6 can be a useful indicator of the prognosis in the initial stage of SAP (48 hours).