Forecast analysis of the incidence of tuberculosis in the province of Quebec.

Background: While the overall population prevalence of tuberculosis in Quebec has been declining for many years, tuberculosis is still disproportionately more prevalent among the immigrant and Inuit communities. As such, the aim of this study was to forecast the incidence of tuberculosis in the Province of Quebec over time in order to examine the possible impact of future preventative and treatment programs geared to reducing such disparities.

Methods: A compartmental differential equation based on a Susceptible Exposed Latent Infectious Recovered (SELIR) model was simulated using the Euler method using Visual Basic for Applications in Excel. Demographic parameters were obtained from census data for the Province of Quebec and the model was fitted to past epidemiological data to extrapolate future values over the period 2015 to 2030.

Results: The trend of declining tuberculosis rates will continue in the general population, falling by 42% by 2030. The incidence among immigrants will decrease but never vanish, and may increase in the future. Among the Inuit, the incidence is expected to increase, reaching a maximum and then stabilizing, although if re-infection is taken into account it may continue to increase. Tuberculosis among non-indigenous Canadian born persons will continue to decline, with the disease almost eradicated in that group in the mid 21st century.

Conclusions: While the incidence of tuberculosis in the Province of Quebec is expected to decrease overall, certain populations will remain at risk.