Metabonomics analysis of plasma reveals the lactate to cholesterol ratio as an independent prognostic factor of short-term mortality in acute heart failure.

Objective: Mortality in heart failure (AHF) remains high, especially during the first days of hospitalization. New prognostic biomarkers may help to optimize treatment. The aim of the study was to determine metabolites that have a high prognostic value.

Methods: We conducted a prospective study on a training cohort of AHF patients (n = 126) admitted in the cardiac intensive care unit and assessed survival at 30 days. Venous plasmas collected at admission were used for (1)H NMR--based metabonomics analysis. Differences between plasma metabolite profiles allow determination of discriminating metabolites. A cohort of AHF patients was subsequently constituted (n = 74) to validate the findings.

Results: Lactate and cholesterol were the major discriminating metabolites predicting 30-day mortality. Mortality was increased in patients with high lactate and low total cholesterol concentrations at admission. Accuracies of lactate, cholesterol concentration and lactate to cholesterol (Lact/Chol) ratio to predict 30-day mortality were evaluated using ROC analysis. The Lact/Chol ratio provided the best accuracy with an AUC of 0.82 (P < 0.0001). The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scoring system provided an AUC of 0.76 for predicting 30-day mortality. APACHE II score, Cardiogenic shock (CS) state and Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 (cutoff value with 82% sensitivity and 64% specificity) were significant independent predictors of 30-day mortality with hazard ratios (HR) of 1.11, 4.77 and 3.59, respectively. In CS patients, the HR of 30-day mortality risk for plasma Lact/Chol ratio ≥ 0.4 was 3.26 compared to a Lact/Chol ratio of < 0.4 (P = 0.018). The predictive power of the Lact/Chol ratio for 30-day mortality outcome was confirmed with the independent validation cohort.

Conclusion: This study identifies the plasma Lact/Chol ratio as a useful objective and simple parameter to evaluate short term prognostic and could be integrated into quantitative guidance for decision making in heart failure care.