[Research on carbon reduction potential of electric vehicles for low-carbon transportation and its influencing factors].

Transportation is the key industry of urban energy consumption and carbon emissions. The transformation of conventional gasoline vehicles to new energy vehicles is an important initiative to realize the goal of developing low-carbon city through energy saving and emissions reduction, while electric vehicles (EV) will play an important role in this transition due to their advantage in energy saving and lower carbon emissions. After reviewing the existing researches on energy saving and emissions reduction of electric vehicles, this paper analyzed the factors affecting carbon emissions reduction. Combining with electric vehicles promotion program in Beijing, the paper analyzed carbon emissions and reduction potential of electric vehicles in six scenarios using the optimized energy consumption related carbon emissions model from the perspective of fuel life cycle. The scenarios included power energy structure, fuel type (energy consumption per 100 km), car type (CO2 emission factor of fuel), urban traffic conditions (speed), coal-power technologies and battery type (weight, energy efficiency). The results showed that the optimized model was able to estimate carbon emissions caused by fuel consumption more reasonably; electric vehicles had an obvious restrictive carbon reduction potential with the fluctuation of 57%-81.2% in the analysis of six influencing factors, while power energy structure and coal-power technologies play decisive roles in life-cycle carbon emissions of electric vehicles with the reduction potential of 78.1% and 81.2%, respectively. Finally, some optimized measures were proposed to reduce transport energy consumption and carbon emissions during electric vehicles promotion including improving energy structure and coal technology, popularizing energy saving technologies and electric vehicles, accelerating the battery R&D and so on. The research provides scientific basis and methods for the policy development for the transition of new energy vehicles in low-carbon transport.