The change in the atrial fibrillation type as a prognosis marker in a community study: long-term data from AFBAR (Atrial Fibrillation in the BARbanza) study.

Background: The aim is to describe the prognosis role of the change in the atrial fibrillation (AF) type in an unselected population of patients with AF currently attending primary care in a single health-service area in Galicia, north-western Spain.

Methods: AFBAR is a cohort study that was carried out by 35 primary care providers in 2008. Participants were followed up for a mean of 2.8 ± 0.7 years. 798 patients with the diagnosis of AF who presented at their clinics during a three-month period were recruited. Primary endpoint was mortality or hospital admission.

Results: 778 patients (413 male) were analyzed; mean age 74.8 years old. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor (76.5%). Permanent AF was diagnosed in 529 patients (68.0%). Change of AF status occurred in 76 patients (9.8%). During follow-up 52.1% of the patients underwent a primary endpoint and the overall survival was 83.4%. The following independent determinants of primary endpoint were identified: change in AF status (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.41 (95%-confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.92); p=0.026); previous heart failure (HR 1.28 (95%-CI 1.00-1.65); p=0.050); previous cardiovascular admission (HR 1.54 (95%-CI 1.16-2.03); p=0.002); stroke (HR 2.02 (95%-CI 1.35-3.03); p=0.001);ischemic heart disease (HR 1.28 (95%-CI 1.00-1.65); p=0.050); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 1.28 (95%-CI 1.00-1.64);p=0.042); anemia (HR 1.37 (95% CI 1.08-1.75); p=0.010); or AF-related complications (HR 1.45 (95%-CI 1.18-1.78); p<0.001).

Conclusions: The change in AF status showed to be an important prognosis marker for death or hospital admissions in a primary care cohort.