Left atrial size and function as predictors of new-onset of atrial fibrillation in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis: the simvastatin and ezetimibe in aortic stenosis study.

Background: Left atrial (LA) size and function change with chronically increased left ventricular (LV) filling pressures. It remains unclear whether these variations in LA parameters can predict new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS).

Methods: Data were obtained in asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS (2.5 ≤ transaortic Doppler velocity ≤ 4.0m/s), preserved LV ejection fraction (EF), no previous AF, and were enrolled in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis study. Peak-aortic velocity, LA(max) volume & LAmin volume were measured by echocardiography. LA conduit (LA(con)) volume was defined as LV stroke volume-LA stroke volume. LA function was expressed as LA-EF (LA(max)-LAmin volume/LA(max)).

Results: In the 1159 patients included, new-onset AF occurred in 71 patients (6.1%) within a mean follow-up of 4.2 ± 0.9 years. Mean age was 66 ± 9.7 years, aortic valve area index 0.6 ± 0.2 cm(2)/m(2), LV mass 99.2 ± 29.7 g/m(2), LA(max) volume 34.6 ± 12.0 mL/m(2), LAmin volume 17.9 ± 9.3 mL/m(2), LA-EF 50 ± 15% and LA(con) volume 45 ± 21 mL/m(2). Baseline LAmin volume predicted new-onset AF in Cox multivariable analysis (HR:2.3 [95%CI:1.3-4.4], P<0.01), and added prognostic information on AF development beyond conventional risk factors (likelihood ratio, P<0.01). In comparison of c-indexes LAmin volume was superior to all other LA measurements. Net reclassification index improved by 15.9% when adding LAmin volume to a model with classic risk factors for AF (P=0.01).

Conclusion: LAmin volume independently predicted new-onset AF in patients with asymptomatic AS and was superior to LA-EF, LA(con) and LA(max) volumes and conventional risk factors.