A novel nomogram for peritoneal mesothelioma predicts survival.

Background: Malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare disease treated with cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC). Estimation of personalized survival times can potentially guide treatment and surveillance.

Methods: We analyzed 104 patients who underwent CRS and cisplatin-based HIPEC for MPM. By means of 25 demographic, laboratory, operative, and histopathological variables, we developed a novel nomogram using machine-learned Bayesian belief networks with stepwise training, testing, and cross-validation.

Results: The mean peritoneal carcinomatosis index (PCI) was 15, and 66 % of patients had a completeness of cytoreduction (CC) score of 0 or 1. Eighty-seven percent of patients had epithelioid histology. The median follow-up time was 49 (1-195) months. The 3- and 5-year overall survivals (OS) were 58 and 46 %, respectively. The histological subtype, pre-CRS PCI, and preoperative serum CA-125 had the greatest impact on OS and were included in the nomogram. The mean areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the 10-fold cross-validation of the 3- and 5-year models were 0.77 and 0.74, respectively. The graphical calculator or nomogram uses color coding to assist the clinician in quickly estimating individualized patient-specific survival before surgery.

Conclusions: Machine-learned Bayesian belief network analysis generated a novel nomogram predicting 3- and 5-year OS in patients treated with CRS and HIPEC for MPM. Pre-CRS estimation of survival times may potentially individualize patient care by influencing the use of systemic therapy and frequency of diagnostic imaging, and might prevent CRS in patients unlikely to achieve favorable outcomes despite surgical intervention.