[A noninvasive diagnostic model of liver fibrosis using serum markers in primary biliary cirrhosis].

Objective: To verify and assess diagnostic value of noninvasive diagnostic model of liver fibrosis in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) based on conventional laboratory markers.

Methods: Seventy-three patients with PBC diagnosed by liver biopsy between January 2003 and June 2011 in Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University were recruited in this study. Correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis between the conventional laboratory markers and histology stages were assessed. A liver fibrosis diagnostic model was established based upon aforementioned biomarkers and verified by its sensitivity and specificity for predicting the liver fibrosis.

Results: The predictive model (H index) consisting of five conventional laboratory markers, i.e., platelet count, serum cholinesterase, albumin, HDL-C and prothrombin time activity, could predict advanced fibrosis (stages III-IV) with an AUC(ROC) of 0.861. The sensitivity of predicting the absence of advanced fibrosis using H index < -2.20 was 96.6% and the specificity of predicting the presence of advanced fibrosis using H index > 0.41 was 93.2%.

Conclusion: The established noninvasive diagnostic model consisting of five laboratory markers could accurately distinguish pathological changes of early stage PBC (stages I-II) from advanced stage PBC (stages III-IV).