Health status and health behaviour as predictors of the occurrence of unemployment and prolonged unemployment.

Objectives: Earlier research on health-related selection into unemployment has been based on relatively severe health problems, leaves questions unanswered about particular problems, follow-up times have been short and the measurement of unemployment utilised has been crude. The present study explores the effects of suboptimal health on employment in the long term, with statistics that enable assessment of the occurrence and extent of unemployment.

Study Design: Employment status of a population cohort (n = 1083) was measured half-yearly from 18 to 42 years of age with four follow-up surveys.

Methods: Health status at 30 years of age was assessed with nine indicators. Their associations with the occurrence of a period of unemployment during the subsequent 12 years were analysed with Cox proportional hazard models, and generalized linear models were applied in assessing their associations with prolonged unemployment.

Results: Suboptimal self-rated health and suboptimal mood were the most robust predictors of both occurrence of unemployment {hazard rates 1.48 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.94] and 1.59 (95% CI 1.19-2.12), respectively} and prolonged unemployment [risk ratios 1.95 (95% CI 1.66-2.29) and 1.44 (95% CI 1.24-1.67), respectively]. Significant associations, particularly with prolonged unemployment, were also seen for musculoskeletal pain, suboptimal sense functions and sleep quality, and smoking and risky alcohol intake.

Conclusions: There is health-related selection into unemployment in early middle age, irrespective of unemployment earlier in the life course. High risk ratios for prolonged unemployment suggest that selection takes place, in particular, at re-employment. The findings indicate the need for policies to prevent those with a history of health problems being at a disadvantage in terms of future employment.