AI Article Synopsis
- Researchers analyzed tuberculosis clusters in the U.S. to predict which small groups of patients (3 individuals) might turn into larger outbreaks (at least 6 cases).
- They found that certain factors, such as homelessness, substance abuse, or incarceration, significantly increased the likelihood of a cluster becoming an outbreak, especially if the third case appeared quickly.
- Of the high-risk clusters identified, over half (53%) ended up spreading into outbreaks, indicating that routine data could help target areas for more intense public health investigations.
Article Abstract
We combined routinely reported tuberculosis (TB) patient characteristics with genotyping data and measures of geospatial concentration to predict which small clusters (i.e., consisting of only 3 TB patients) in the United States were most likely to become outbreaks of at least 6 TB cases. Of 146 clusters analyzed, 16 (11.0%) grew into outbreaks. Clusters most likely to become outbreaks were those in which at least 1 of the first 3 patients reported homelessness or excess alcohol or illicit drug use or was incarcerated at the time of TB diagnosis and in which the cluster grew rapidly (i.e., the third case was diagnosed within 5.3 months of the first case). Of 17 clusters with these characteristics and therefore considered high risk, 9 (53%) became outbreaks. This retrospective cohort analysis of clusters in the United States suggests that routinely reported data may identify small clusters that are likely to become outbreaks and which are therefore candidates for intensified contact investigations.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3492443 | PMC |
| http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0048754 | PLOS |
Publication Analysis
Top Keywords
Similar Publications
Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?
Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!