Three dimensional water quality modeling of a shallow subtropical estuary.

Knowledge of estuarine hydrodynamics and water quality comes mostly from studies of large estuarine systems. The processes affecting algae, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen (DO) in small and shallow subtropical estuaries are relatively less studied. This paper documents the development, calibration, and verification of a three dimensional (3D) water quality model for the St. Lucie Estuary (SLE), a small and shallow estuary located on the east coast of south Florida. The water quality model is calibrated and verified using two years of measured data. Statistical analyses indicate that the model is capable of reproducing key water quality characteristics of the estuary within an acceptable range of accuracy. The calibrated model is further applied to study hydrodynamic and eutrophication processes in the estuary. Modeling results reveal that high algae concentrations in the estuary are likely caused by excessive nutrient and algae supplies in freshwater inflows. While algal blooms may lead to reduced DO concentrations near the bottom of the waterbody, this study indicates that stratification and circulation induced by freshwater inflows may also contribute significantly to bottom water hypoxia in the estuary. It is also found that high freshwater inflows from one of the tributaries can change the circulation pattern and nutrient loading, thereby impacting water quality conditions of the entire estuary. Restoration plans for the SLE ecosystem need to consider both a reduction of nutrient loading and regulation of the freshwater discharge pattern.