Warm is better: incubation temperature influences apparent survival and recruitment of wood ducks (Aix sponsa).

Avian parents that physically incubate their eggs must balance demands of self-maintenance with providing the proper thermal environment for egg development. Low incubation temperatures can lengthen the incubation period and produce changes in neonate phenotype that may influence subsequent survival and reproduction. We artificially incubated wood duck (Aix sponsa) eggs at three temperature regimes (low, 35.0; mid, 35.9; and high, 37.3°C) that are within the range of temperatures of naturally-incubated nests. We tested the effect of incubation temperature on duckling body composition, fledging success, the probability that females were recruited to the breeding population, and their subsequent reproductive success. Incubation period was inversely related to incubation temperature, and body mass and lipid mass for newly-hatched ducklings incubated at the lowest temperature were lower than for ducklings produced at higher temperatures. In 2008, ducklings (n = 412) were individually marked and broods (n = 38) containing ducklings from each temperature treatment were placed with wild foster mothers within 24 hrs of hatching. Ducklings incubated at the lowest temperature were less likely to fledge from nest sites than ducklings incubated at the higher temperatures. We recaptured female ducklings as adults when they were either prospecting for nest sites (n = 171; 2009-2011) or nesting (n = 527; 2009-2012). Female ducklings incubated at the lowest temperature were less likely to survive and be recruited to the breeding population than females incubated at higher temperatures. Reproductive success of surviving females also was greater for females that had been incubated at warmer temperatures. To our knowledge, this is the first avian study to link developmental conditions experienced by neonates during incubation with their survival and recruitment to the breeding population, and subsequent reproductive success. These results advance our understanding of incubation as an important reproductive cost in birds and support the potential significance of incubation in influencing the evolution of avian life histories.