Mortality and incident vertebral fractures after 3 years of follow-up among geriatric patients.

Unlabelled: In a prospective cohort study of 395 geriatric outpatients, mortality after 3 years was associated with prevalent vertebral fractures at baseline. The mortality risk was independently associated with the presence of three or more vertebral fractures at baseline. In the surviving patients, the risk of incident fractures was noteworthy, occurring in 26 % of these patients.

Introduction: The purpose of this study is to determine mortality rate and the incidence of vertebral fractures in a geriatric outpatient group, during a 3-year follow-up period, in a teaching hospital in Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Methods: This study includes a prospective cohort study of 395 geriatric patients who had their baseline visit at a diagnostic day hospital in 2007 and 2008. They were invited for follow-up 3 years later. Lateral X-rays of the lumbar spine and chest were performed at baseline and after 3 years; vertebral fractures were scored in all patients according to the semi-quantitative method of Genant.

Results: After 3 years, mortality was 46 % and associated with prevalent vertebral fractures at baseline (odds ratio (OR), 1.83; 95 % CI, 1.23-2.74). The presence of three or more vertebral fractures at baseline was an independent risk factor for mortality (OR, 3.32; 95 % CI, 1.56-7.07). Other independently associated risk factors were greater age, higher co-morbidity score, and having more prescriptions. Higher cognitive capacity protected against mortality after 3 years. In 72 patients, radiography was repeated. Nineteen patients (26 %) had an incident radiographic vertebral fracture: 16 in those with a prevalent fracture, and 3 in those without a prevalent vertebral fracture at baseline.

Conclusions: In geriatric outpatients, mortality after 3 years was associated with prevalent vertebral fractures at baseline, and the mortality risk was independently associated with 3 or more vertebral fractures at baseline. In survivors, the risk of incident fractures was noteworthy, since these occurred in 26 % of the patients, particularly in those with a prevalent vertebral fracture.