A new method is introduced for analysis of interactions between time-dependent coupled oscillators, based on the signals they generate. It distinguishes unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips and enables the evolution of the coupling functions and other parameters to be followed. It is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. The method is tested numerically and applied to reveal and quantify the time-varying nature of cardiorespiratory interactions.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.109.024101 | DOI Listing |
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
December 2024
Department of Biology, James Madison University, Harrisonburg, VA 22801.
In many complex systems encountered in the natural and social sciences, mechanisms governing system dynamics at a microscale depend upon the values of state variables characterizing the system at coarse-grained, macroscale (Goldenfeld and Woese, 2011, Noble et al., 2019, and Chater and Loewenstein, 2023). State variables, in turn, are averages over relevant probability distributions of the microscale variables.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFNat Commun
September 2024
Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China.
Bull Math Biol
July 2024
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.
While mean-field models of cellular operations have identified dominant processes at the macroscopic scale, stochastic models may provide further insight into mechanisms at the molecular scale. In order to identify plausible stochastic models, quantitative comparisons between the models and the experimental data are required. The data for these systems have small sample sizes and time-evolving distributions.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFArXiv
May 2024
Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA.
We consider genealogies arising from a Markov population process in which individuals are categorized into a discrete collection of compartments, with the requirement that individuals within the same compartment are statistically exchangeable. When equipped with a sampling process, each such population process induces a time-evolving tree-valued process defined as the genealogy of all sampled individuals. We provide a construction of this genealogy process and derive exact expressions for the likelihood of an observed genealogy in terms of filter equations.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPLoS One
January 2024
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States of America.
Mathematical models are a valuable tool for studying and predicting the spread of infectious agents. The accuracy of model simulations and predictions invariably depends on the specification of model parameters. Estimation of these parameters is therefore extremely important; however, while some parameters can be derived from observational studies, the values of others are difficult to measure.
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