Potential impact of interventions resulting in reduced exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation (UVA and UVB) on skin cancer incidence in four European countries, 2010-2050.

Background: Behavioural interventions to reduce exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) can reduce risk of skin cancer.

Objectives: To integrate the data and to evaluate the impact of interventions to limit exposure to UVR on skin cancer incidence in four selected countries.

Methods: Using PREVENT, a dynamic simulation model, we modelled the potential for skin cancer prevention in four European countries under various scenarios to avoid damage by UVR.

Results: In general, the most effective interventions were those aimed at protecting people during outdoor work and outdoor hobbies against the harmful effects of UVR, and combinations of several interventions. These could in theory lead to reductions of up to 45% in skin cancer cases projected for the year 2050.

Conclusions: The scope for prevention depends on the prevalence of the risk factors in the different countries, as well as the associated risk factors and time lags modelled.