The effect on road safety of a modal shift from car to bicycle.

Objective: To describe and apply a method to assess the effect on road safety of a modal shift from cars to bicycles.

Method: Ten percent of all car trips shorter than 7.5 km were assumed to be replaced by bicycle trips. Single-vehicle and multivehicle crashes involving cars and/or bicycles were considered. The safety of car occupants and cyclists was taken into account as well as the safety of other road users involved in such crashes. The computations were carried out by age and gender. Assuming constant risk (casualties per distance traveled), the expected number of accidents is proportional to the mobility shift. Several types of risk were considered: the risk of being injured as a car driver or cyclist and the risk of being involved as a car driver or cyclist in a crash in which another road user is injured.

Results: The results indicated that the total gain of the modal shift was negative for fatalities, which means that there was a net increase in the number of fatalities. The modal shift was advantageous for young drivers and disadvantageous for elderly drivers. In addition, it was more positive for males than for females. The turning point was around the age of 35. For hospitalized casualties, due to the strong influence of the many hospitalized cyclists in nonmotorized vehicle crashes, there was a strong negative overall effect, and the modal shift resulted in a positive effect for 18- and 19-year-old males only. Overall, a small increase (up to 1%) in the number of cyclist fatalities and a greater increase of 3.5 percent in the number of inpatients was expected. The increase in casualties was mainly due to the proportion of single-vehicle bicycle crashes with serious injuries in relation to the total number of injured cyclists. The effect of the modal shift was shown to depend on age and gender, resulting in fewer casualties for younger drivers and for women.

Conclusions: It is possible to provide a first approximation of the effect on road safety of a mobility shift from cars to bicycles. This approximation indicates that, in general, road safety does not benefit from this modal shift. The effect differs for gender and age groups. Elderly drivers are safer inside a car than on a bicycle. For the number of hospitalized casualties, the modal shift increases the number of casualties for practically all ages and both genders.