Modeling the epidemic waves of AH1N1/09 influenza around the world.

Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol

Grupo Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universidad de los Andes, Venezuela.

Published: December 2011

The 2009 swine flu pandemic was a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus and there are more than 14,000 confirmed deaths worldwide. The aim of this paper is to propose new mathematical models to study different dynamics of H1N1 influenza virus spread in selected regions around the world. Spatial and temporal elements are included in these models to reproduce the dynamics of AH1N1/09 virus. Different models are used since H1N1 influenza virus spread in regions with different contact structures are not the same. We rely on time series notifications of individuals to estimate some of the parameters of the models. We find that, in order to reproduce the time series data and the spread of the disease, it is convenient to suggest spatio-temporal models. Regions with only one wave are modeled with the classical SEIR model and regions with multiple waves using models with spatio-temporal elements. These results help to explain and understand about potential mechanisms behind the spread of AH1N1 influenza virus in different regions around the world.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2011.05.002DOI Listing

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

influenza virus
16
h1n1 influenza
12
virus spread
8
time series
8
models
6
influenza
5
virus
5
regions
5
modeling epidemic
4
epidemic waves
4

Similar Publications

The re-emergence of the mpox pandemic poses considerable challenges to human health and societal development. There is an urgent need for effective prevention and treatment strategies against the mpox virus (MPXV). In this study, we focused on the A35R protein and created a chimeric A35R-Fc protein by fusing the Fc region of IgG to its C-terminal.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Despite extensive experience with influenza surveillance in humans in Senegal, there is limited knowledge about the actual situation and genetic diversity of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) circulating in the country, hindering control measures and pandemic risk assessment. Therefore, as part of the "One Health" approach to influenza surveillance, we conducted active AIV surveillance in two live bird markets (LBMs) in Dakar to better understand the dynamics and diversity of influenza viruses in Senegal, obtain genetic profiles of circulating AIVs, and assess the risk of emergence of novel strains and their transmission to humans. Cloacal swabs from poultry and environmental samples collected weekly from the two LBMs were screened by RT-qPCR for H5, H7, and H9 AIVs.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Treatment options for viral infections are limited and viruses have proven adept at evolving resistance to many existing therapies, highlighting a significant vulnerability in our defenses. In response to this challenge, we explored the modulation of cellular RNA metabolic processes as an alternative paradigm to antiviral development. Previously, the small molecule 5342191 was identified as a potent inhibitor of HIV-1 replication by altering viral RNA accumulation at doses that minimally affect host gene expression.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

HDAC1 and HDAC2 Are Involved in Influenza A Virus-Induced Nuclear Translocation of Ectopically Expressed STAT3-GFP.

Viruses

December 2024

Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand.

Influenza A virus (IAV) remains a pandemic threat. Particularly, the evolution and increased interspecies and intercontinental transmission of avian IAV H5N1 subtype highlight the importance of continuously studying the IAV and identifying the determinants of its pathogenesis. Host innate antiviral response is the first line of defense against IAV infection, and the transcription factor, the signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3), has emerged as a critical component of this response.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a leading cause of death in children under five globally. The seasonal trends and profiles of respiratory viruses vary by region and season. Due to limited information and the population's vulnerability, we conducted the hospital-based surveillance of respiratory viruses in Eastern Uttar Pradesh.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?

Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!