Conditional survival after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic patients.

Purpose: Survival estimates are commonly reported as actuarial survival after the first observation, but future survival probabilities can change over time. Conditional survival is a measure of prognosis for patients who have sometimes already survived several years since diagnosis; however, data on conditional survival for cirrhotic patients, resected for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), are lacking.

Experimental Design: Clinical data from 300 consecutive cirrhotic patients who underwent HCC resection were reviewed and the actuarial survival estimated. The 5-year conditional survival was calculated as CS = S(x + 5)/S(x) and represents the probability of surviving an additional 5 years, given that the patient has already survived x years.

Results: The 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates were, respectively, 69.0%, 57.7%, and 25.3% and were lower in cases of portal hypertension, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score ≥9, United Network for Organ-Sharing T3 tumor, GIII-GIV tumors, and microscopic vascular invasion. However, the 5-year conditional survival calculation showed that patients resected for more advanced (T3) tumors or with adverse histologic features will experience the same survival probabilities as patients with less advanced tumors or favorable histology from the third year after surgery onward, as they had probably escaped recurrence from intrahepatic metastases. Patients who underwent repeated hepatectomy for recurrence presented higher conditional survival.

Conclusions: Conditional survival showed that the impact of different variables influencing survival is not linear over time after hepatic resection. Information derived from conditional survival can be used to better manage patients with HCCs, including the potential future setting of adjuvant therapies and the choice of listing, or not, for transplantation resected patients not recurring within 2 years.