[Estimate of the number of HIV-seropositive persons in The Netherlands; implications for the evolution of the AIDS epidemic].

In this article we estimate the total number of HIV seropositives in the Netherlands with an extended version of the Fast Back Calculation model. As a result we found between 5500 and 6500 seropositives for the end of 1987. This is considerably lower than earlier expectations. The distribution of incidence over time suggests that the HIV epidemic has passed its summit. We argue that the total number of HIV infected persons halfway 1990 lies somewhere between 7500 and 9000. With the estimated number of HIV seropositives we also predict minimum values for the AIDS incidence in future years. We expect the number of new AIDS cases to increase to over 600 per year in the mid-nineties. We briefly discuss the consequences of our findings for AIDS control. We underline the desirability of a policy directed at risk groups and apart from continuing existing preventive measures aimed at these groups we advocate paying more attention to i.v. drug users, visitors of STD clinics and travellers to and applicants for political asylum from endemic areas.