No evidence for an epidemic of stroke with the ageing of the population.

Background/aim: The ageing population in Australia may contribute to an epidemic of stroke in coming years. We aimed to assess whether deaths and hospitalisations from stroke in Australia are increasing.

Methods: Nationwide age- and sex-specific hospitalisation episode data from 1996 to 1997 were used to predict future hospitalisations from stroke. Age- and sex-specific mortality data from 1997 were used to predict future mortality from stroke. These predictions were based on an expected increase in the population's age and population growth. We compared these estimates to those observed in national figures for the following 9 years.

Results: Based on 1996-1997 hospitalisation rates, we calculated that hospitalisations for stroke would be expected to rise from 27,399 to 35,041 in 2005-2006. Using 1997 mortality rates, deaths from stroke would be expected to rise from 9,126 to 12,726 in 2007. Observed hospitalisations (2005-2006) were 6,380 fewer than expected, while deaths (2007) were 4,103 fewer than expected. This represents a 2.21% annual reduction in hospitalisation rate, and a 4.0% annual reduction in mortality rate.

Conclusion: Encouragingly, hospitalisation and mortality rates for stroke appear to be declining. If these figures reflect actual occurrences of stroke then it may be that primary and secondary prevention strategies are working.