Diabetes incidence does not differ between subjects with and without high depressive symptoms--5-year follow-up results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study.

Aims: Cross-sectional studies have consistently reported evidence for an association between diabetes and depressive disorders. However, only limited prospective studies have examined this association, reporting conflicting results. In a population-based cohort study, we compared cumulative incidences of diabetes between participants with and without high depressive symptoms.

Method: We analysed the 5-year follow-up data from the German Heinz Nixdorf Recall study of 3547 participants without diabetes at baseline [mean age 58.8 (sd 7.6) years, 47.5% male]. Depressive symptoms were defined using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (cut point ≥ 17). Diabetes (diagnosed or previously undetected) was identified by self-reported physician-diagnosed diabetes, medication and high blood glucose levels. We estimated 5-year cumulative incidences with 95% confidence intervals and fitted multiple logistic regression models to calculate the odds ratios, adjusted for age, sex, physical activity, smoking, living with or without partner, and educational level.

Results: The cumulative incidence of diabetes was 9.2% (95% CI 6.3-12.8) in participants with high depressive symptoms at baseline and 9.0% (95% CI 8.0-10.0) in participants without these symptoms. The age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio of diabetes in participants with depressive symptoms compared with those without was 1.13 [95% CI 0.77-1.68; fully adjusted 1.11 (95% CI 0.74-1.65)]. These results did not substantially change in several additional sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion: Our study did not show a significantly increased risk of developing diabetes in individuals with high depressive symptoms compared with those without high depressive symptoms during a 5-year follow-up period.