By generating the specifics of a network structure only when needed (on-the-fly), we derive a simple stochastic process that exactly models the time evolution of susceptible-infectious dynamics on finite-size networks. The small number of dynamical variables of this birth-death Markov process greatly simplifies analytical calculations. We show how a dual analytical description, treating large scale epidemics with a Gaussian approximation and small outbreaks with a branching process, provides an accurate approximation of the distribution even for rather small networks. The approach also offers important computational advantages and generalizes to a vast class of systems.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.85.031118 | DOI Listing |
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