Risk factors for advanced neoplasia within subcentimetric polyps: implications for diagnostic imaging.

Objective: Diagnostic imaging by CT colonography and capsule endoscopy is used to detect colonic lesions. Controversy exists regarding the work-up of subcentimetric lesions. The aim of this study was to identify risk indicators for advanced neoplasia (AN) in subcentimetric polyps.

Design: Colonoscopies were classified on the basis of the largest lesion found. AN was defined as high-grade dysplasia, villous histology, or cancer. Logistic regression models were developed to identify risk factors for AN, and validated on separate datasets. A risk index based on the logistic regression was generated, and the number needed to screen (NNS) to detect AN was determined.

Results: 1,077,956 colonoscopies identified 106,270 intermediate (5-9 mm) and 198,954 diminutive (≤ 4 mm) lesions; 13% of intermediate and 3.7% of diminutive lesions contained AN. The risk of AN was higher in intermediate than in diminutive lesions (OR 3.1; 95% CI 3.0 to 3.3). Age ≥ 85 versus <45 years was associated with ORs of 2.4 (95% CI 1.8 to 3.1) for intermediate polyps and 3.2 (95% CI 2.3 to 4.5) for diminutive polyps. Pedunculated versus sessile morphology was associated with a higher risk of AN in intermediate (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.9 to 2.2) and diminutive (OR 3.5; 95% CI 2.9 to 4.1) lesions. In the combined analysis for subcentimetric lesions, ORs were 2.7 (95% CI 2.2 to 3.3) for age ≥ 85 versus <45 years, 1.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.2) for male sex, 1.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.7) for occult blood, 1.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 1.5) for overt blood in stool, 1.3 (95% CI 1.2 to 1.4) for more than four lesions, and 2.2 (95% CI 2.1 to 2.3) for pedunculated versus sessile lesions. At median risk index values, the NNS was 9.3 (95% CI 9.1 to 9.5) in individuals with intermediate lesions and 29.4 (95% CI 28.5 to 30.2) in those with diminutive lesions. Compared with the NNS of 15 of the whole cohort, the majority of intermediate, but a minority of diminutive, lesions were deemed at high risk of AN.

Conclusion: This study successfully identified risk factors and established a risk index for subcentimetric lesions. This has implications for the work-up of patients with subcentimetric lesions identified on diagnostic imaging.