An economic analysis of tobacco elimination policies in Turkey.

Objective: We aim to evaluate the costs and benefits of various tobacco elimination policies, specifically, an immediate taxation option and eight tax-combined long-term cessation programs.

Methods: We combine demographic projections for the period 2012-2050 with incidence and mortality rates of four major cigarette related diseases, price elasticity of cigarette demand and unit costs of nonprice measures to reduce demand in order to estimate the net present discounted values of policy alternatives.

Results: The tax-combined cessation programs yield lower net costs to households and the society when they phase out smoking earlier. However, immediate taxation option is found to be superior, for both households and the society, to all tax-combined cessation programs irrespective of the duration of intervention. While all policies are estimated to yield significant reductions in the expected number of smoking related diseases and deaths, a class-based 20-year intervention is found to be the most effective program.

Conclusions: Although immediate taxation policy and tax-combined class-based 20-year intervention program emerge as the best tobacco elimination policies for the society, more research is needed on assessing the cost-effectiveness, applicability and social desirability of these alternatives and on designing additional policies to overcome their limitations.